Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Saving Up For In-vitro...

I just listened to a "This American Life" episode called Somewhere Out There. The show was about the likelihood of finding someone for you. It started with the mathematical theory called the "Drake Equation". Here is the definition:

The Drake equation is a mathematical equation used to estimate the number of detectableextraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy. It is used in the field of the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI). The equation was devised in 1961 by Frank Drake, Emeritus Professor of Astronomy and Astrophysics at the University of California, Santa Cruz.

A bunch of girlfriend-less Harvard math graduates decided to apply this equation to their lives to determine the likelihood they would find girlfriends. I have decided to apply this to my life:

Using a calculator and census demographics, here is my conclusion:

Population of Miami: 362,470
Population of Males (because I like boys): 180,194
The number of males is slightly larger than females by about 2,000. So, lets just call it half.
The age range I would be interested in would really be about 28-35. So statistically this is hard to estimate since the age demographics are in ranges 25-34 and 35-44. The number for 24-34 is 54,264 and 35-44 is 55,682. Since both age groups are relatively the same and include an age range of 10 years, I am going to pick 10 years as well. 28-38 years old.
I am going to say that age range is 50,000. Now eliminate the women. 25,000 men in my age range in miami.
Lets rule out married or girlfriend-ed guys.
The statistics show 13.56% are married, 26.35% have children and 2.38% have an un-married partner. That is 42.29% of the full population. I will call it half since Miami has a high gay population and I am not really looking for unmarried guys with kids. So out of 25,000 we go to 12,500 men.
Now, I would like a college graduate. Statistically only 27% of the population of America has college degrees.
Ugh...hard math.
So, I'm thinking give or take 4,687 men that are single, without kids, who live in Miami and have graduated college.
Now, I want to rule out really short guys. I'd like someone my height 5'9" or taller. Statistically, the average man is 5'10" in America. Which according to the website, half are not 5'10". So, 2,343 men.
I would like someone employed. The unemployment rate in Miami is 12.5%.
So 2,050 are gainfully employed.
I'd like this guy to make within a range of what I am making or more. For discretional purposes, I will not include the range. It's a little less than half by percentage.
So we are down to 1,100 men.
Now, here comes the hard part, how many of those men would actually be attracted to me?
I'm going to be relatively realistic here and say 1 in 10 guys finds me attractive. I would say out of those 1/20 guys would actually ask me out.
That leaves me 55 guys in all of Miami-Dade County (which is HUGE) that would actually ask me out that I would be interested in.

These 55 guys does not include guys weeding me out or me weeding them out based on things like religion for example. Religion is not a huge issue for me because I don't have one. But, that is a huge deal for a lot of people. 

I also didn't rule out men that don't speak English (which is important in Miami) or where English was their first language. So you can rule out a few there...probably down to 30 guys.With the religion thing, maybe 25.

I didn't deduce by which zip codes these men would statistically be in. Miami is huge and has soo many. Realistically, I am only ever in about 7 different zip codes which reduces the likelihood by a lot that these 25 would spend time in the same ones.

I don't think I gave enough credit to the gay population here as well.
I didn't rule out guys who wear rhinestone t-shirts or sunglasses at night.
I didn't rule out men that had relationship-inhibiting disabilities.
I didn't rule out anyone by race. (I am sorta open, but realistically long-term I'm not sure how big racial differences would influence the success of our relationship).
I didn't rule out guys with STDs.
I didn't account for a ratio of guys that I find attractive (although some were weeded out through my deductions, but really the only physical thing I weeded out was height.)
Pretty much at this point I am looking at negative numbers OR with the best possible options maybe 5 or less guys.

I would say I've already dated 1-2 of them, but that isn't true. The guys I have dated that I have met in Miami don't meet the basic requirements above. It didn't work out, big surprise- but I have to be honest, I genuinely didn't want or expect it to. In fact, I am not sure I can recall anyone I have met in Miami that I wanted to date and thought it would work out. Again, not surprising considering how many are here for me.

But to be an optimist, there are 1-5 guys in Miami that I have a chance of dating if we are in the right place at the right time. Awesome. 











1 comment:

  1. I love you, and that was tragic fun, but considering people often into more than one category in your elimination...you eliminated a lot of them twice if not more. Also, Miami is transient. Hot me that think you are hot come in boats and planes every day.
    ...and I my loser-hood trumps yours.

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